Détente Amongst The Stars – From New Tensions to New Rules and Cooperation in Space

With anti-satellite weapons tests conducted by four separate nations within the past two decades, politics in space is increasingly defined by a climate of competition and mutual suspicion. Across various countries, these tensions are crystallising into the creation of security strategies, as well as bureaucracies intended to address challenges in the outer space.

However, far from a mere resumption of Cold War dynamics, the human use of space has changed sharply over the past decades as a significant number of both public and private actors are increasingly using it for core societal functions. In the fifty years since the Outer Space Treaty, which continues to serve as the lynchpin of the multilateral security governance of space, has entered into force, we have become reliant on satellites for global navigation, weather monitoring, and communications networking.

This multiplicity of technologies often simultaneously fulfils critical military roles that cannot be ignored strategically while also underpinning crucial social technologies across the planet - a truly new condition that requires vastly different solutions to those envisioned in 1967.

On the one hand, these new conditions demand pragmatic security-oriented responses; this, however, does not equate to a participation in a space arms race. Space is a domain defined by the severe consequences of the smallest missteps, amply illustrated by the debris already generated by a relatively small number of anti-satellite tests or the global reliance on a small number of satellites providing vital functions.

In such an environment, resilience must be a central objective of traditional security apparatuses, such as the space forces being established in various nations. Whether in formulating strategies or pursuing technological solutions, such security agencies will be vital in managing issues like orbital debris reduction or contingency planning for critical satellite losses in vital networks such as GPS or the forthcoming EU-SSA-N. In a period of sophisticated threat campaigns in cyberspace such as Turla, this will additionally require cross-domain policy coordination and solutions.

Furthermore, in anticipation of potential worst-case scenarios, such as action in space disabling missile early warning infrastructure, lines of communication must be established between the relevant security agencies in allied and third nations alike. Additional measures such as the coordination and management of critical capability redundancies in spatial infrastructure across nations would further entrench resilience as a multinational objective and initiative.

On the other hand, new thinking carries the possibility of new opportunities for the multilateral governance of space. Rather than pursuing the panacea of a single treaty to replace the Outer Space Treaty, cooperation should be re-established as a norm of outer space through proactive and pragmatic initiatives. Smaller agreements should be pursued to delineate critical areas such as unacceptable target categories, including strategically relevant but societally critical infrastructure such as communication satellites.

Meanwhile, multinational and public-private initiatives across traditional security boundaries could be pursued to develop collective capabilities in increasingly democratized areas such as earth observation. This would serve to foster a condition of mutual dependence as a means of discouraging destructive competition in space, while contributing substantively to needs such as collective resilience and standard-setting. Such interdependence could temper the geopolitical tensions of today by pragmatically introducing idealism into the policies that will shape space tomorrow.

Jiro Minier (25) is Security Analyst at Deutsche Cyber-Sicherheitsorganisation.