Keeping Grounded: Mitigating Militarization and Building Trust in Space

The democratization of information and the proliferation of new technologies have reduced the barriers for use of cislunar space by states, government consortia, and private corporations. As access to low-Earth orbit (LEO) increases, so will the competition to control it. Similarly, as military capabilities in space develop, so will counterspace and counter-counterspace capabilities. As space becomes recognized as an "operational domain" it is necessary to consider the potential consequences of its militarization and work towards a mutually-favorable global outcome.

The world has become increasingly dependent on space for vital civil, military, and commercial purposes. The current satellite architecture powers critical everyday systems including global communications (telephone, internet, and radio), positioning, navigation, and timing (GPS and clock synchronization for global financial markets), environmental observation (weather forecasting, climate monitoring, traffic), and military intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). These systems have always been threatened by accidental disruption, but the research and development of anti-satellite weapons have forced the international community to prioritize the possibility of deliberate and malicious disruption. Intentional disruption would have severe economic consequences and would signify a dangerous escalation that could dawn a new generation of military weaponry.

An arms race in space would be based on perceived adversarial superiority in the domain, similar to the "missile gap" and "bomber gap" during the Cold War. While a state may have a desire to dominate space, it may also simply see it as an opportunity to build an asymmetric military threat. The proliferation of anti-satellite technologies forewarns a dangerous escalation that must be met by a unified global response. We must offer opportunities for cooperation in mutually-beneficial space activity, while demonstrating the diminishing marginal value of investing in such technologies.

For example, as LEO becomes more congested, Space Situational Awareness (SSA) represents a challenge, but an important opportunity for international collaboration. Welcoming all space-faring nations into a program and satellite registry that tracks natural and man-made resident space objects (RSO) and shares spaceflight launch activity would promote transparency and build confidence within the space community. This program could build on the existing architecture of the European SSA Preparatory Programme, which shares information on RSOs, space weather, and near-Earth objects (NEO). Information sharing on program members’ satellite activity would enable mutual space observation similar in goal and concept to the 1992 Open Skies Treaty. It would also serve to protect members’ space assets by avoiding collisions with other LEO RSO and spread awareness of natural hazards caused by solar activity and NEO. As space becomes increasingly congested on the radiofrequency spectrum, registering satellite networks could also prevent radiofrequency interference caused by an inundated electromagnetic spectrum.

While such measures would advance communication integrity and freedom of navigation in space, alone they are unlikely to dissuade investment in anti-satellite technologies. To discourage further development, arms control negotiations could focus on eliminating physical kinetic and non-physical kinetic counter-space weapons (e.g. direct ascent and directed energy weapons), while deterrence from counter-counterspace capabilities (e.g. cyber, electronic warfare, and conventional threats to ground stations) could demonstrate ineffectuality of other asymmetric threats. Accordingly, the international community has a shared responsibility to maintain the peace and integrity of space in order to preserve the friendly, responsible, and legal use of the environment and must pursue a dual-track approach of preparing for escalation while working diligently to prevent it.

Benjamin Fogel (24) ist Student an der University of Pennsylvania.