Foreword

Dear Reader,

Just a few days after last year’s Munich Security Conference concluded, Russia began its unprovoked and brutal aggression against Ukraine. Since that fateful decision, the world has changed dramatically. As German Chancellor Scholz famously noted, the Russian invasion marks a Zeitenwende, a watershed, which forces us to rethink previous assumptions. Zeitenwende incidentally was also the name of an MSC Report published in October 2020 calling for a more robust approach in German foreign policy. As the changes in the Munich Security Index – an exclusive annual index of risk perceptions, which we developed together with our partner Kekst CNC – indicate, people around the world feel that we are indeed witnessing a turning point for world politics, and have adapted their views as a result.

The invasion of Ukraine also reveals a few simple things. First, Vladimir Putin’s decision to use military force against a peaceful neighbor has demonstrated that powerful actors believe they can ignore even the minimum standards of international law, such as the principle of
territorial integrity. As the chapters of this Munich Security Report show, the Russian war against Ukraine is just the most brazen attack on the rules-based order. Revisionist actors are trying to undermine the status quo and change the international order in many different ways.

Second, we are far from helpless. Revisionism can be resisted. The Ukrainian people, first and foremost, have demonstrated a remarkable resilience and determination in the face of blunt aggression. The vast majority of UN member states have condemned the invasion and the attempted annexation of Ukrainian regions, and many countries have introduced sanctions against Russia and provided Ukraine with political, economic, and military support. However, Ukraine has not won the war yet, and will need the support of all those who believe in the rule of law.

Third, the fact that a considerable number of actors have not condemned Russia’s aggression shows that it is not enough for us to simply defend the status quo. If we do not address the resentment that countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia feel toward the international order, which has not always served their interests, we will struggle to win the fence-sitters as allies in the defense of key rules and principles. As this report argues, we need a vision of the international order that more people can subscribe to, as well as a larger coalition of responsible stakeholders, if we want to preserve the core principles of this order. At this year’s Munich Security Conference, we will thus not only focus on pushing back against revisionism, but also on creating a positive vision for a more peaceful and prosperous world.

This year’s conference is also a Zeitenwende for the MSC, as Wolfgang Ischinger, after 14 years at its helm, has handed over the chairmanship to me. I am deeply grateful to him and look forward to building on his legacy – together with the wonderful MSC team and all of you.

Yours,
Ambassador Christoph Heusgen
Chairman of the Munich Security Conference